The article in Atlantic Monthly By Robert Kaplan on the looming inevitability of a military confrontation with China was interesting. I could agree with some arguments without question, like how the war in the Iraq is a distraction and a drain of resources when there needs to be long term preparations made for a more serious threat. However, all of Kaplan’s words about the hubs of Guam and Singapore, and how the U.S. navy can keep China in check, leading both countries away from costly direct conflict in a Bismark fashion didn’t quite add up to me. Kaplan didn’t spend one word of his piece in China’s investment in Latin America. This military obsession will be the American downfall. It’s reassuring to see that the U.S. military is more concerned with strengthening PACOM than worrying about CENTCOM, but this showdown will probably be won without firing a single shot. There doesn’t need to be a showdown over Taiwan or a soft absorption of a united Korea in the coming decades. The United States owes China an awful lot because China has been buying a lot of dollars.
This Daily Kos diary points out that the numbers that Krugman is using have possibly been massaged by the Bush administration, and the situation would be actually much worse. i’m even weaker in economics than i am in other concepts though. It’s totally over my head. Still, i think that this conflict will be more about markets and money valuation than aircraft carriers and submarines.